Looking at the local real estate market in 2018, we see some marked shifts from recent years. Prices went up another 7%, but inventory rose roughly 25% and is now surpassing 2015 levels. Sales are down 10% and mortgage interest rates are now approaching 5%, a sharp climb, and the highest they have been in nearly 8 years. Other external factors at play include continued strong local employment numbers, and two major wildfires bookending the year which created massive property damage and added more pressure to already tight rental market.
Going into 2019, we already have some important information to help us see where the market is likely to be heading. Mortgage interest rates are likely to continue a slow climb, barring any major economic shock. Also the new tax laws passed will start to have real effects for consumers, as they weigh tax deduction caps for state taxes, and mortgage interest, and how that affects their personal purchasing power.
The Conejo Valley itself continues to be a highly desirable community, and with a negligible number of new construction options available, our resale market is expected to continue to see increasing prices, growing at roughly half the rate of last year. Inventory appears to be leveling off at the end of the year and should remain fairly static throughout the year. We are now beyond the days of multiple offers the weekend a property is listed and seeing sellers dominate negotiations. The market should be more balanced between the number of available properties and demand, much as we saw in the closing months of 2018. This is good news for both buyers and sellers.
For details on how to help you in your home ownership goals in 2019, whether buying or selling, contact us today!
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) worked throughout the tax reform process to preserve the existing tax benefits of homeownership and real estate investment, as well to ensure as many real estate professionals as possible would benefit from proposed tax cuts. Many of the changes reflected in the final bill were the result of the engagement of NAR and its members, not only in the last three months, but over several years.
Click each link below for rest of article.....
In 2017 we saw the lowest inventory levels in five years across Southern California, which served to push prices to close to, and occasionally beyond, their all-time highs. Most notably locally was the flurry of activity at price points below $750,000. We saw gains of 10-12% in home values, year over year. Headed into 2018, this demographic still shows exceptionally tight inventory, with roughly three weeks of supply currently on the market. This is 15% lower than we started in 2017.
The continuing shortage of available housing, combined with relatively full-employment locally would indicate another strong year ahead for prices with all things being equal. However, all things are not equal. The most recent tax bill, has tempered what used to be a clear cut advantage between renting and owning. The new tax plan least affects homes in the below $750,000 price range, and that is where inventory is tightest locally. If employment remains strong, we can also anticipate that rents will continue to push up powerfully.
People who have been in their homes since 2013, have seen 37% appreciation to date, while people who have been renting, are feeling that same increase in their monthly rent. This inflationary trend will continue as long as we continue to have a strong employment base locally, and remain attractive to employers in the future. If you have questions about the local real estate market, and how to best take advantage of these current conditions, please give us a call today.
I met some amazing people today while out in Shadow Oaks, and I wanted to share their story with you.
I knocked a door that was opened by a small, kindly man, who listened to my sales pitch, and then told me, "I have to give you a cake. I bake friendship cakes for all my friends." He invited me in, and while wrapping up a cake for me to take, he began to tell me a story of his youth, culminating in a flight on a B-25 over the Arizona desert when he was a twelve year old boy. He then told me about life as a foster parent to over 127 children who had spent time in his and his wife's care over their 64 years together. They showed me newspaper clippings of their story as once captured in a newspaper years ago. I had to know what would prompt such dedication to help so many young lives, so I asked why.
The wife told me who she was born in Paris, France, and when she was six, the world was thrown into war. As the Germans began to bomb Paris, children were evacuated by trains in the dark, scattering them out of the countryside. They were loaded into trucks and distributed into villages in groups of 15. She spent the next two years living in a house located next to a Gestapo headquarters. In the basement the family hid downed Allied pilots to smuggle back to Allied positions, and she was taught never to speak, for fear of attracting the attention of their frightful neighbors. When the war ended, the children were returned to Paris. Only 3 of those fifteen children in her village had parents to return to, and she returned to find only her mother. Her mother soon after married an American serviceman and they moved to California where she grew up dreaming of becoming a nun. She fell in love with a boy instead as sometimes happens to aspiring clergy, but she always knew that her destiny was to help children who had no one else.
Now in their 80's, their child rearing days are long behind them, but she still knits gifts for orphans and great-grandchildren that are part of their legacy.
When it was time for me to leave, she gave me two teddy bears for my daughters. They were wrapped in hand knit blankets, and tucked into hand knit drawstring bags. She mentioned how a great-grandchild who visited recently used the bag as a hat.
When I got home, I gave the bags to my daughters, and found that wearing them as a hat is quite the latest in toddler fashion. As my accompanying picture illustrates. Running into two people who lived through some of the worst the world can dish out, and living with such incredible generosity and kindness was truly a gift from the universe for me today. And so I wanted to share it with you.
Happy 2017! We hope you had a memorable holiday season and festive New Year. January is finally here and we are back to reality - and real estate! 2016 has come to a close, and for us it was one of our busiest years ever. Record sales were accompanied by charitable endeavors and meaningful community partnerships. To start off the year, let’s take a look back at the local market’s performance and project what may be in the works for real estate in the Conejo Valley area.
The local real estate market in 2016 chugged along at a good pace. Prices continued to rise, posting a gain of roughly 3% for the year across the price spectrum. Sales volume was down about 2% from the year before, largely due to a decrease in inventory in the area. We are currently seeing roughly two months’ worth of property available, a trend that is likely to continue. High demand continues to be the strongest variable shaping the real estate market in our local area. If you are looking for the best time to buy or sell, that time is now. Of course, if you are looking for a team with the experience and discipline to get you what you want, in the time you want, call us today.
The new year brings both opportunities and challenges for people looking to sell properties in 2017. Sellers find themselves with the boon of being in a low inventory environment, and prices approaching historic highs. That optimism is tempered by the knowledge that the market will be contending with how mortgage interest rates respond to a shift in policy by the Federal Reserve for the first time in over a decade. Many buyers are likely to find themselves motivated to action after seeing the end of year jump in rates, and knowing that the best value on a loan could be now.
The Buss Lampert McKinley Group finished this December with five closings, bringing the team tally to 46 transactions for the year with $25 million in volume. You may have noticed from our Facebook posts that we have some big news to announce - We are adding a new member to the team, Danny Lampert! With the addition of Danny, we are looking forward to being able to continue to provide outstanding service to our growing clientele.
Thank you for making us your real estate professionals of choice and for your continued support in 2017. Here’s to a healthy and prosperous new year!
With the holidays upon us, we're reminded of those who've helped us along in our lives and profession. We don’t get
enough opportunity to personally say thank you even though we're grateful every day. We'd like to express our deepest
appreciation for placing your confidence in us, and supporting our practice with your friendship and referrals.
Wishing you a wonderful holiday season. May the joy of the festivities extend to you and yours throughout the coming year!
If you’re just beginning your foray into real estate - maybe thinking about relocating to a new city, or potentially selling your current home - perhaps you’ve browsed a national real estate website, such as Zillow or Trulia. You can quickly get a general picture of what’s available by using these sites and begin to get a feel for the real estate market in that area. The Buss McKinley Group utilizes these national sites when listing our customers’ properties, as we’re aware of the window shopping benefits of having homes on these sites in addition to listing them on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). If you’re serious about your real estate transaction, however, national sites can lead to needless frustration for both buyers and sellers.
Inaccurate Information Wastes Buyers' Time
Oftentimes, a client will browse Zillow or another similar site to search available properties in lieu of using the MLS. To be fair, these websites are beautifully designed, and offer multiple links to what appear to be available properties. The problem, however, is that these websites are oftentimes inaccurate. Properties statuses can be outdated, showing as available when they are not. I have had multiple clients email me a list of addresses of properties they found online and were interested in, not even one of which was for sale. Also, some sites have a feature that attempts to anticipate future foreclosures, and shows those to buyers as potentially available. On top of being embarrassing for the current owners of the property when true, this information can be wildly inaccurate. Additionally, listings pop up as suggestions for you, but unfortunately, it's NOT because they’re within the parameters you’ve set. Oftentimes these are paid ads that the site is steering toward buyers who are looking for something entirely different. It’s likely that you don’t want to waste precious time searching for homes that aren’t in your budget, are in the wrong area, etc. And about the area? These national sites can't tell you much about a city or neighborhood.
Specialized Searches Save Time and Reduce Frustration
When a buyer works with us as their realtor, we set you up on a search using the MLS. This site has the most updated information available on all the properties currently for sale. We set up a personalized search for you on the MLS, which is drastically more accurate than the national sites. On the MLS, realtors are required to update their listings, and no detail about an available property is spared. Additionally, the MLS is ad-free. There are no pop-up ads or requests to give away your email address to yet another website. When you call us asking about a house you saw on the MLS search we set you up with, you can be assured that the home is still on the market, and the description and features that describe the property are accurate.
"Zestimates" Mislead Sellers
Sellers can run into pitfalls with national real estate sites as well. Namely, a tool known as Zestimate has led to frustration with homeowners who’ve been led to believe their property is far more or far less than what it is likely to sell for. Zestimates are estimates, as the name suggests, using an algorithm that includes exactly zero input about the condition of a property. It uses comparable sales from preset radius around the location and adjusts for square footage and lot size. If you are in any area where there is low turnover, or if there are a variety of ages of homes, or if multiple builders shared in the development in your part of town, it is likely your Zestimate is not accurate. If you’re truly interested in what your home’s value may be, we can provide you with a free market analysis. It includes accurate, up-to-date information about recent home sales in your neighborhood, and a like for like comparison method.
Realtors Provide Accurate Market Information
Whether you’re buying or selling, your best bet for accurate information is to contact a licensed realtor. At the Buss McKinley Group we’re happy to discuss the local real estate market with you, even if you’re still in the “window shopping” stage. Give us a call at (805) 328-3799 and let our expertise help you with your real estate needs.
Written By Nelson Buss
By Nelson Buss, email@example.com
You’ve probably seen lawn signs and TV ads promoting Ventura County Measures C and F. Both measures are subject to contentious debate between open space advocates and local farmers, and these measures could have an impact on local property values as well. Several people have asked me recently about how the election will impact the real estate market going forward. My standard response is, barring extraordinary global events, the Conejo Valley and greater Ventura County real estate market is most strongly impacted by very specific, local pressures. On the ballot this year are a set of countywide measures, Measures C and F, that are going to dictate growth and development in the county for least the next decade, possibly as far into the future as 2050. I want to provide a summary of the two countywide measures and what their likely effect will be on local real estate.
The first is Measure C, which is backed by SOAR. Soar got its start in Ventura back in 1995, when that city passed an initiative to force all zoning changes within city limits to a popular vote. It was modeled on an earlier Napa Valley law that had withstood a Supreme Court challenge. After Ventura, all the local municipalities and unincorporated areas have since adopted similar provisions. Most of these provisions are set to expire in 2020. Measure C seeks to extend these provisions until the year 2050. The most obvious impact of this measure is that it preserves the semi-rural character of the county, which stands in sharp contrast to Los Angeles and Orange Counties. There are currently over 100,000 acres of agricultural land in production in Ventura County.
The other measure on the ballot is Measure F, which is backed primarily by the owners of local farms. This measure has a timeline of 20 years, through 2036. It also has a provision requiring a public vote for zoning changes, but also includes a few provisions that local farmers claim is essential to ensure their survival over the coming decades. It calls for water infrastructure support for the agricultural land currently in use, and looks to set aside 225 acres of current agricultural land to be converted to processing facilities. Measure F also provides for consideration of land that currently is adjacent to local schools to be converted to a different zoning through the county. Up to 300 acres could potentially be impacted.
Both measures are strict on the allowances that they give private landowners regarding their property. One allows for no variance from current policy, while the other loosens some restrictions and benefits the current property owners by increasing their revenue stream options from agricultural endeavors, and loosening restrictions on land that is not currently usable due to urban encroachment. How a voter feels about these options may depend largely on how they weigh private ownership rights versus their desire to curb growth in their own backyard.
Photos courtesy https://twitter.com/sustainvc2016, http://www.soarvc.org/, and http://www.totallylocalvc.com/farm-tours-highlight-local-agriculture/.
By Nelson Buss, firstname.lastname@example.org
Summer is coming to a close. Kids are going back to school, the days are growing shorter, and the “For Sale” sign is the front yard is casting a long shadow across your lawn. You were sure this would be done by now. But your home hasn’t sold yet, so now what? What are your options? At this point it is important to take a look and see how you got here, so that you know how to move forward.
In the Conejo Valley in the last 60 days, 386 homes were sold according to the MLS. Another 143 homes that were listed either expired or were cancelled, so just over 25% of properties listed did not sell for some reason. If your home falls into this category there are some questions you are likely asking yourself.
Do you still need to move? When do you need to be in your new home? If the answers to these are no and never, you probably have already stopped reading. But if the answer is absolutely, and yesterday, then you’ve got some work to do.
The first key to selling is to know your competition. Who is on the market today? There are currently 469 homes actively listed for sale in the Conejo Valley. How does your house compare with the properties listed in your neighborhood? What did the home in your neighborhood that sold this summer, while yours sat, sell for? Armed with this you can know what price you need to be at to attract a buyer before the competition does.
What was the feedback from buyers on showings? Are their critiques useful, and are there opportunities for you to allow your home to show better to prospective buyers?
The Buss-McKinley Group has experience helping sellers succeed where other agents have failed. We can get you on track, and get your property sold. Call us today at (805) 328-3799.
By Marissa Buss, email@example.com